Long-term Energy Sustainability Development Analysis to Reducing Carbon Emissions and Air Pollutions of China Based on LEAP Simulation Model

Jianjun Wang, Cai Hua, Li Li

Ekoloji, 2018, Issue 106, Pages: 173-179, Article No: e106053


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The energy demand of China is gradually increasing with the rapid economic development, according to the new low-carbon energy development strategy, China will enhance the renewable energy proportion and reduce the fossil energy, the energy demand forecasting has the important significance for the future energy development planning of China. This study built an energy forecasting model based on the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) computer software in order to analyze the future energy development of China. The LEAP model was used to estimate the total energy demand, electricity demand and the energy demand structure by 2030 of four sectors of industries in BAU, BAL and BAH three different scenarios. As the forecasting results shown, the energy demand will reach 4,800-5100 Mtce in 2020 and 5,300-5,700 Mtce in 2030, and although the coal will dominate the energy, it will peak by 2030, the renewable energy will enhance its proportion in the energy structure, especially the wind and solar energy. The electricity will increasing stably increase near 10,000 Billion kWh by 2030. The prime objective was to give some reference of the long-term energy development planning policy, which help reducing the carbon emissions and air pollution to the environment.


electricity development, renewable energy, energy forecasting, LEAP simulation